Jair Bolsonaro’s conviction, which formally bars him from holding public office, marks a significant legal milestone in Brazil. However, this judicial outcome is widely anticipated not as an end but as a transition point for his profound political influence. Analysts predict his enduring sway will continue to shape Brazil’s political trajectory, leveraging a dedicated support base and the deeply rooted conservative movement he galvanized during his presidency.
Bolsonaro’s sustained political capital stems from a robust and fervent core of millions of voters who identify with his anti-establishment rhetoric, conservative values, and critique of the current Workers’ Party administration. He effectively utilizes social media and direct communication channels to bypass traditional media, maintaining a direct line to his supporters. As a figurehead for a broader anti-left and nationalist agenda, his capacity to mobilize protests, endorse candidates, and frame public discourse remains potent, even from outside the formal electoral arena. This positions him as a potentially powerful “kingmaker” in future elections, capable of transferring a significant portion of his electoral appeal to chosen successors.
Looking ahead, the 2026 presidential election will serve as a crucial test for the long-term impact of Bolsonaro’s indirect influence. The Brazilian right faces the complex challenge of identifying a successor capable of consolidating his base while also appealing to a wider electorate. This process could lead to internal divisions within the conservative movement as various figures vie for Bolsonaro’s endorsement and the leadership mantle. Alternatively, a strong, Bolsonaro-backed candidate could emerge, presenting a formidable challenge to the incumbent government and potentially further polarizing the political landscape.
Ultimately, Bolsonaro’s conviction does not signify the quiet departure of his populist movement. Rather, it heralds a new, more complex phase for Brazilian politics. The persistent shadow of his influence will likely ensure continued societal polarization, present ongoing challenges for the current administration in implementing its agenda, and dictate much of the strategy for the right-wing opposition. Brazil’s political future, while seemingly rid of Bolsonaro’s direct participation, will remain deeply shaped by the enduring power of the conservative and populist forces he helped unleash.